Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 0.014729 0.016700 0.018842 0.021345 0.024191 0.027328 0.031049
2025-04-13 0.011089 0.013663 0.016705 0.020572 0.025363 0.031116 0.038563
2025-04-20 0.009673 0.012611 0.016288 0.021238 0.027745 0.036032 0.047426
2025-04-27 0.008633 0.011786 0.015922 0.021758 0.029812 0.040580 0.056141
2025-05-04 0.007885 0.011203 0.015735 0.022399 0.031993 0.045374 0.065576
2025-05-11 0.007032 0.010350 0.015047 0.022210 0.032918 0.048427 0.072771
2025-05-18 0.006387 0.009709 0.014567 0.022227 0.034079 0.051851 0.080765
2025-05-25 0.005757 0.009014 0.013921 0.021899 0.034643 0.054371 0.087551
2025-06-01 0.005370 0.008645 0.013722 0.022219 0.036205 0.058525 0.097265
2025-06-08 0.004928 0.008143 0.013259 0.022057 0.036951 0.061404 0.105118
2025-06-15 0.004699 0.007961 0.013286 0.022684 0.039035 0.066628 0.117390
2025-06-22 0.004237 0.007345 0.012538 0.021928 0.038677 0.067667 0.122431
2025-06-29 0.003893 0.006908 0.012066 0.021621 0.039106 0.070160 0.130428
2025-07-06 0.003504 0.006356 0.011349 0.020816 0.038568 0.070886 0.135255
2025-07-13 0.003380 0.006270 0.011445 0.021492 0.040798 0.076837 0.150526
2025-07-20 0.003245 0.006149 0.011464 0.022018 0.042786 0.082496 0.165772
2025-07-27 0.003135 0.006066 0.011545 0.022667 0.045060 0.088892 0.183110
2025-08-03 0.002930 0.005780 0.011214 0.022476 0.045645 0.092009 0.194010
2025-08-10 0.002767 0.005563 0.010999 0.022493 0.046647 0.096034 0.207196
2025-08-17 0.002579 0.005280 0.010630 0.022161 0.046889 0.098508 0.217264
2025-08-24 0.002476 0.005161 0.010579 0.022484 0.048541 0.104074 0.234680
2025-08-31 0.002331 0.004944 0.010310 0.022320 0.049120 0.107383 0.247320
2025-09-07 0.002272 0.004904 0.010407 0.022956 0.051513 0.114863 0.270314